目　　錄

回商管科技季刊目錄

米穀烘焙機具考慮冪轉換折耗率的永續使用行為研究

A SUSTAINABLE USAGE BEHAVIOR FOR ITEM WITH POWER TRANSFORMATION DEPRECIATION
AND USED RICE-DRYING MACHINE

黃寶祚

國立宜蘭大學應用經濟與管理學系教授

陳麗貞

國立宜蘭大學人文暨科學教育中心副教授

Bao-Tzuoh Huang

Professor, Department of Applied Economics andManagement,
National Ilan University

Lee-Chen Chen

Associate Professor, Center for Humanities andScience Education,
National Ilan University

摘要

　　乾燥作業或者代烘績效之提升，讓米穀的風味與品級大幅提升，過去類此的農具使用，難測得其折舊耗損程度，致後續使用行為之研究，亦裹足不前。本研究首先佈建得此類農機易辨識的使用行為，做概念之架構指引，並採用Box-Cox函數之指數形式做量化驗證，發現米穀烘焙機具在使用的第一年，其使用效率就僅剩下52.12%，至第三年後，方回穩至平滑下降的折耗型態。本研究經參酌各類農機可能由二手市場購置使用與購買國別不同之後，最終建構得適區米穀烘焙機具之永續使用模圖，可提供給自營作業或代耕中心，於擬定合宜綠色環境管理的參考。

關鍵字：二手市場、折舊性生產機具、套牢成本、Box-Cox函數

ABSTRACT

　　Sustainable usage behavior is a key requirement for implementing rice-drying enterprises. This paper examines the conceptual depreciation frameworks of the Ilan rice-drying machine in usage, by the (perceived) resale price data of farm machines adjusted with maintenance costs as well as capacity utilization. After the built cognitive framework, the paper begins by employing the adjusted index to empirically verify the approximated efficiency loss in rice-drying farming process while the Ilan replacement investment has been installed. Specifically, the Box-Cox model is used to explicitly derive the relative productive efficiency by the all vintage in usage. Comparable to the other farming machines with moderate second-hand market, the rice-drying usage is confined in the accelerating deterioration and, therefore, the major usage strategy should reconstruct the early years’ green cognition and take superior technology-drying ecodesign into account.

Keywords:Second-Hand Market, Depreciable Productive Equipment, Sunk Cost,Box-Cox Function

回目錄

製造系統複雜度的分析與評估

Analysis and Evaluation of Complexity for Manufacturing Systems

呂明山

國立雲林科技大學工業工程與管理研究所教授

陳建富

國立雲林科技大學工業工程與管理研究所研究生

Ming-Shan Lu

Professor, Graduate Institute of Industrial Engineering and Management,
National Yunlin University of Science and Technology

Chien-Fu Chan

Graduate student, Graduate Institute of Industrial Engineering and Management,
National Yunlin University of Science and Technology

摘要

　　製造系統的彈性是為了應客戶需求的變化，然而彈性的增加會造成系統變得越來越複雜，系統複雜的程度則是會影響作決策時的困難性。因此，系統的複雜程度可視為影響決策判斷的重要因素。製造系統的複雜程度可分成兩個部份，分別是靜態複雜度與動態複雜度。靜態複雜度是由系統結構與組成元素關係所造成的複雜程度，動態複雜度則是系統動態操作行為所造成的複雜程度。本研究以訊息熵當作衡量複雜度的工具，利用熵值的計算得到不同狀態下系統的熵值來探討製造系統作業的靜態及動態複雜度，建立衡量系統複雜度的指標。在靜態複雜度方面，考慮的因子包括機台彈性、作業彈性以及批量中產品混合比例，並討論這些因子對於靜態複雜度的影響。在動態複雜度方面，考慮多機台下，在投入率與服務率的變化下，造成等候狀態發生的不確定性，利用等候理論的學理基礎，分析系統的動態等候行為模式，並引用訊息熵的概念，發展出等候行為的複雜度評估模式，探討系統投入率與服務率、最大容量、平行機台數量等因子對於複雜度所造成的影響，以作為管理者決策的依據。

關鍵詞：複雜度、製造系統、績效評估、訊息熵

ABSTRACT

　　In order to respond to the change in customer demand, flexible manufacturing systems are developed and implemented. However, the increasing of flexibility results in that the system is more complex. The level of system complexity will cause the difficulty of decision making. Therefore, systems’ complexity can be treated as an important factor for decision making. There are two types of complexities: static complexity and dynamic complexity. The static complexity includes the complexity coming from system structure and the interaction of internal components. The dynamic complexity includes the complexity coming from system dynamic behaviors. In this research, the information entropy is proposed to evaluate the static and dynamic complexities of the system. For the static complexity, the influences of machine number, job number and part mix on static complexity are discussed. For the dynamic complexity, queuing theory is introduced to analyze the behavior of system dynamic queue, and the influences of arrival rate, service rate, system capacity and the number of parallel machine on dynamic complexity are discussed. The results of evaluated system complexity can help managers for decision making.

Keywords:Complexity, Manufacturing System, Performance Evaluation, Information Entropy

回目錄

考量市場需求不確定與匯率變動下建立跨國企業之全球產銷運籌決策模型

Developing the Global Logistic Decision Model for Multinational Enterprises under Considering Exchange Rate Volatility and Demand Uncertainty

黃明官

實踐大學財務金融學系教授

Ming-Guan Huang

Professor, Department of Finance and Banking,
Shih Chien University

摘要

　　現今企業基於市場、客戶及生產成本考量而傾向將其製造或組裝基地設置全球各處而形成一跨國營運企業，此一經營策略可取得即時掌握與應對市場需求變化、縮短訂購前置時間、提升供貨彈性與交期配合能力及降低運送成本等營運優勢，同時亦可尋覓提供較低廉之土地、廠房及人工成本的製造地點以提昇成本競爭力與增加銷貨利潤。不僅如此，由於銷售市場或主要客戶亦可能遍佈世界各地，為提高顧客服務品質及取得時基競爭優勢，企業可能另在全球數個據點建立發貨中心。然而，跨國企業的挑戰之一即為必須作成艱鉅繁雜之全球產銷運籌決策以尋求達成最大營運利益。本研究即試圖發展出可使跨國企業產生最大利潤的全球產銷運籌決策模型，特別強調的是，該一模型中同時考量下一產銷期中市場需求不確定性與匯率變動性，藉以提高所發展模型方法之有效性。且為求解此一困難且複雜的決策問題，本研究乃結合實質選擇權分析法與邊際分析法及最大利潤有限流量網路分析模式以快速求得其近似最佳解。最後，透過數值實例驗證所發展之模型方法的實用性與正確性。

關鍵詞：運籌管理、全球產銷運籌決策、跨國企業、需求不確定、匯率變動

ABSTRACT

　　Modern large-scale enterprises often intend to found a multinational enterprise that the manufacturing or assembling bases are located worldwide as result of allowing for marketplace, customer and production cost. The multinational operation strategy can get the advantages on managing timely the requirement change, reducing the lead time, enhancing the distribution flexibility and capability for meeting the required due date, and cutting down the transportation cost. Additionally, these multinational enterprises search for a location with bringing cheaper costs on land, plant and labor that could facilitate cost competitiveness and enhance the sale profits. Moreover, it also should be expected that marketplaces for a typical multinational enterprise spread out worldwide. Consequently, the multinational enterprise would establish several distribution centers or hubs locating on world-wide zones for the sake of promoting customer service quality and obtaining time-based competition advantage. Following such a reformation, a challenge confronted by multinational enterprises is that a complicated global logistic operation must be implemented in order for acquiring the maximal business benefit. In view of this, this study endeavors to develop a global logistic decision model, which can gain the maximal expected profit. Meantime, it is exceptionally emphasized that volatility on exchange rate and uncertainty on market demand during the next selling period are simultaneously taken into account so as to improve the effectiveness for the developed model here. To this end, this study integrates the real options approach with the marginal analysis and maximum profit capacitated flow network mode to straightforwardly and rapidly work out the optimal solution. Finally, the workability and accuracy for the developed decision model here are verified by using numerical instance.

Keywords: Logistic Management, Global Logistic Decision Model, Multinational Enterprise, Demand Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Volatility

回目錄

實質原物料價格及實質匯率對經濟成長影響之探討

the impact of Real raw material prices and Real exchange rates on Economic growth

孫而音

僑光科技大學財務金融系副教授

劉淑琴

僑光科技大學國際貿易運籌系副教授

陸盈君

國立暨南國際大學財務金融所研究生

Erh-Yin Sun

Associate Professor, Department of Finance,
Overseas Chinese University

Shu-Chin Liu

Associate Professor, Department of International Trade & Logistics,
Overseas Chinese University

Ying-Chun Lu

Graduate Student, Graduate Institute of Finance,
National Chi Nan University

摘要

　　糧食是維持人類生存的基本資源，而工業化社會亦脫離不了對石油的需求。因此，當糧食或石油的供需出現不穩定狀況，將對一國甚或全球經濟造成衝擊。此外，隨著國際金融市場越趨開放，匯率雖可能受一國政府左右，但匯率的升貶亦使一國面臨物價穩定與經濟成長之間的抉擇。過去文獻討論經濟成長議題時，大多以單一因素對經濟成長的衝擊，而本研究以油價、糧價作為實質原物料價格，再加上實質匯率因素對經濟成長的影響，以期能獲得較為周延的結果。本文利用橫斷面的異質差異並加入多變量的架構，採用（Pesaran, Shin, & Smith, 1999）的混合組群平均估計式（PMG）進行分析，除檢測是否存在長期均衡關係，並探討是否因為長、短期的影響而有所差異？並與（Pesaran & Smith, 1995）提出的組群平均（MG）及傳統的動態固定效果（DFE）估計方法比較，再經由Hausman檢定選擇較合適的估計方法。實證結果顯示，採用PMG的估計方法較為有效，實質原物料價格及實質匯率與經濟成長存在長期關係，且長、短期的影響效果不同。因此，探討經濟成長時，應同時考慮實質原物料價格及實質匯率等因素，以避免產生錯誤的結論。另外，分別就高收入與低收入不同經濟結構體進行分析，發現實質原物料價格與實質匯率對經濟成長亦有不同的影響效果。

關鍵詞：實質原物料價格、實質匯率、經濟成長、混合組群平均估計

ABSTRACT

　　The economic growth is considerably influenced by energy and food crises since food and oil are the fundamental resources for humans. In addition, the exchange rate is also a crucial factor for economic growth. Different from the previous reports that focused mainly on the impact of a single factor on economic growth rates, this study emphasizes a multiple factor analysis including the real oil prices, food prices and exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long- and short-run impact of three factors, i.e. oil prices, food prices, and exchange rates on economic growth rates. To this end, we employed the pooled mean group estimator (PMG) from Pesaran, Shin, and Smith, 1999, the mean group estimator (MG) from Pesaran and Smith (1995), and the dynamic fixed-effect method (DFE) to balanced panel data for 53 countries over the period 1996-2011. In addition, the Hausman test was used to choose the more suitable estimator for this analysis. In the empirical results, the PMG estimator is shown to be more suitable for this analysis. Moreover, the negative long-run relations between these factors and economic growth rates coexist with positive short-run relations. Notably, we found that the lack of simultaneous consideration of these factors results in a substantial deviation in the analysis. Another finding is that the results are consequently varied when different income groups are included in the data analysis. Therefore, a consideration of the multiple factors including the real oil prices, food prices, exchange rates, as well as the income groups, is needed for an unbiased impact analysis of economic growth rates.

Keywords: Real Raw Material Prices, Real Exchange Rates, Economic Growth, Pooled Mean Group

回目錄

台灣存託憑證市場之從眾行為

HERDING BEHAVIOR IN TAIWAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPT MARKET

劉清標

國立中正大學財務金融學系助理教授

謝和原

國立中正大學財務金融學系碩士生

Chin-Piao Liu

Assistant Professor, Department of Finance,
National Chung Cheng University

Ho-Yuan Hsieh

Graduate student, Department of Finance,
National Chung Cheng University

摘要

　　本文探討台灣存託憑證（TDR）市場投資人的從眾現象，尤其是機構投資人投資決策的從眾行為，實證結果發現，專業機構投資人具有從眾行為，並且於賣出TDR時的從眾程度高於買入TDR時。另外在產業與國籍分析方面，機構投資人對非電子產業TDR與非台商TDR具有程度較高之從眾現象，而在TDR交易特性上，機構投資人之從眾行為分別與TDR之市場價值規模與交易週轉率有顯著的正向關係。

關鍵詞：台灣存託憑證、從眾行為

ABSTRACT

　　This paper examines the herding behavior of investors, specifically the institutional investors, in Taiwan depositary receipt (TDR) market. We find that the institutional investors display significant herding behavior with a higher degree as they sell TDR than as they buy TDR. Furthermore, in the analysis of industry and nationality, we find that the institutional investors show a higher degree of herding behavior in non-electronics TDR and TDR issued by non-Taiwanese owned companies. In characteristic analysis, the herding behavior of the institutional investors positively relates to the market value and the turnover rate of TDR, respectively.

Keywords: Taiwan Depositary Receipt, Herding Behavior

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