一、

財經專業人士從眾推薦之研究

賴藝文、葉智丞

二、

西進中國之台灣汽車零組件廠商動態能耐對其競爭優勢之影響─以環境變動為調節

張惠真、蔡翼擎、何文松

三、

政府機關內部控制制度之執行對組織效能影響之研究－以國有財產局及國稅稽徵機關為例

侯啟娉、張力、林翠蓉、陳美娟

四、

預算參與和工作績效之關聯性：角色模糊、自我效能及預算目標接受的中介效果

鍾紹熙

五、

台灣經濟發展過程之縣市成長與收斂實證

高慈敏

財經專業人士從眾推薦之研究

A RESEARCH ON STOCKS RECOMMENDED BY FINANCIAL EXPERTS

賴藝文

嶺東科技大學財務金融系助理教授

葉智丞

嶺東科技大學企業管理系副教授

Yih-Wenn Laih

Assistant Professor, Department of Finance,

Ling Tung University

Chih-Cheng Yeh

Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration,

Ling Tung University

摘要

　　本研究依據萬寶、先探與理財三本市場佔有率較高的財經週刊，收集每期財經專業人士推薦之個股作為研究標的，並根據個股之推薦次數進行分類，形成三個投資組合：非從眾推薦組、低度從眾推薦組與高度從眾推薦組進行後續分析；研究期間自2010年12月31日至2012年11月20日，共計95週。實證結果發現：(1)在多頭期間非從眾推薦組與低度從眾推薦組的股票個數較空頭期間多，但高度從眾推薦的股票個數則是空頭期間較多頭期間多，財經專業人士從眾推薦個股的行為在空頭期間較多頭期間顯著。(2)高度從眾推薦組在多頭期間具有攻擊性，而空頭期間則相對具有防禦性，調整風險後之超額報酬為正。(3)考慮交易成本後之套利策略，僅高度從眾推薦組的推薦當週與持有到第1週具有正報酬。(4)最後，財經專業人士從眾推薦強度越強的股票可歸納成兩類，一為資訊透明度高與未來投資機會佳的大型股、成長股，另一為市場關注程度高的高週轉率、高券資比與高法人持股比率之股票。此結果支持凱因斯的選美

比賽理論，在金融投資時若想要獲利，必須選擇大家普遍認為能夠賺錢的個股進行投資。

關鍵字：個股推薦、從眾、投資績效

ABSTRACT

　　This study collects stock recommendations from three popular weekly magazines, namely, Marbo, Moneyweekly and Wealthinvest, to classify them into three herding recommendations portfolios. Empirical evidences show that the herding behaviors of financial experts on stock recommendations are more obvious in bear market than in bull market. Trading the higher herding portfolio results in significantly positive risk-adjusted returns no matter in bear or bull market. Taking advantages of this observation, we construct zero-cost portfolios by buying the stocks in the higher herding portfolio and short-selling the Taiwan Top 50 or Mid-Cap 100 ETFs. It is demonstrated that such an investment strategy produces significantly positive premium in the issuing week and the following week. Finally, we find that stocks with larger growth and investment opportunities, stocks with higher focus from the consensus are more likely to be herd recommendations. This result support Keynes' beauty contest argument.

Keywords: Stock Recommendations, Herding, Investment Performance

回目錄

西進中國之台灣汽車零組件廠商動態能耐對其競爭優勢之影響─以環境變動為調節

EFFECT OF DYNAMIC CAPABILITY OF TAIWAN’S CHINA-BOUND AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENT FIRMS ON THEIR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: USING ENVIRONMENTAL TURBULENCE AS MODERATOR

張惠真

國立臺北大學企業管理學系副教授

蔡翼擎

實踐大學國際企業管理學系助理教授

何文松

昇達科技股份有限公司製造部經理

Hui-Chen Chang

Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration,

National Taipei University

Yi-Ching Tsai

Assistant Professor, Department of International Business Management,

Shih Chien University

Wen-Sung Ho

Manufacturing Division Manager, Universal Microwave Technology Inc.

摘要

　　隨著中國經濟的崛起，中國汽車市場也成為全球汽車產業的競技場，它不但是全世界最大的生產基地，更是全球最大的銷售市場，吸引全球主要汽車品牌廠商進入；而台灣汽車零組件廠商亦應挾其地理、人文及語言的先天優勢，及時調整策略進入此高度成長與競爭的世界級市場。因此，探討台灣汽車零組件廠商之動態能耐與西進中國市場之競爭優勢關係是本研究之主要目的。

本研究針對西進中國汽車市場的台灣汽車零組件廠商，探討廠商動態能耐、環境變動因素、競爭優勢之關係，經由問卷調查收集資料並進行假說驗證。本研究以LISREL 8.51進行確證性因素分析（CFA），評估量表信效度與模型適配度，再以階層迴歸分析進行研究假說之驗證。研究結果發現，動態能耐對於西進中國大陸市場之廠商的競爭優勢有正向顯著影響；但加入環境變動因素之後，市場變動在廠商動態能耐對其競爭優勢之影響上產生顯著的弱化影響；技術變動在廠商動態能耐對其競爭優勢之影響上產生顯著的強化影響；而競爭強度則在廠商動態能耐對其競爭優勢之影響上呈現不顯著之弱化結果。此研究成果應能裨益台灣汽車零組件廠商西進中國市場之策略管理。

關鍵字：動態能耐、環境變動、競爭優勢、汽車零組件產業

ABSTRACT

　　With the rise of China’s economy, China’s auto market has also become the arena of the global automotive industry. Now, China has not only become the largest production base, but also has the largest sales market in the world, attracting global leading automotive brand manufacturers to enter. Therefore, Taiwan auto parts vendors should rely on its inherent geographical, cultural and language advantages, timely adjust its strategies to enter this highly growing and competitive world-class market.

　　This study aims to explore the relationship between dynamic capability, environmental turbulence, and competitive advantage of Taiwan’s China-bound auto parts vendors. The empirical data was collected from Taiwan’s China-bound auto parts vendors through questionnaires. This study first examined the reliability, convergent, and discriminant validity of the main constructs by conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) with LISREL 8.51, and then uses hierarchical regression analysis to test the research hypotheses. The results showed: Dynamic capabilities of Taiwan’s China-bound auto parts vendors will positively and significantly affect their competitive advantage. Yet, with consideration of environmental turbulence factors, market turbulence will significantly weaken the relationship between dynamic capabilities and competition advantage of the vendors. And technological turbulence will bring significant strengthen-effect on the relationship between dynamic capability and competition advantage of the vendors while competitive intensity will bring insignificant weaken-effect on it. This research benefits Taiwan’s China-bound auto parts vendors by offering strategic implications in strategic management.

Keywords: Dynamic Capability, Competitive Advantage, Environmental Turbulence Factors, Auto Parts Vendor

回目錄

政府機關內部控制制度之執行對組織效能影響之研究－以國有財產局及國稅稽徵機關為例

A STUDY OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE GOVERNMENT’S INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEM:
EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL PROPERTY ADMINISTRATION AND NATIONAL TAXATION AGENCY

侯啟娉

中國科技大學會計系副教授

張力

世新大學企業管理學系副教授

林翠蓉

文化大學財務金融學系副教授

陳美娟

財政部會計處綜計科科長

Chi-Ping Hou

Associate Professor, Department of Accounting,

China University of Technology

Li Chang

Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration,

Shih Hsin University

Tsui-Jung Lin

Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Banking,

Chinese Culture University

Mei-Chuan Chen

Section Chief, Department of Accounting,

Ministry of Finance, R.O.C.

摘要

　　本文以國有財產局及國稅稽徵機關為對象，探討政府機關內部控制制度之執行對組織效能之影響；此外，亦進一步分析內部控制制度之執行與組織效能間，組織內員工角色壓力是否具有中介效果。本文採用問卷設計方式，以線性結構模式進行研究分析。實證研究結果顯示：內部控制制度之執行有助於組織效能之提升，而角色壓力則會對組織效能有負向影響；然而，落實執行內部控制制度能有助於角色壓力之降低。另外，本文進一步發現角色壓力對內部控制制度之執行與組織效能之關係，具有部分中介效果，表示內部控制制度之執行，可降低機關員工之角色壓力，進而提升組織效能。

關鍵字：內部控制制度、角色壓力、組織效能

ABSTRACT

　　We investigate the National Property Administration and National Taxation Agency to explore how the execution of the government’s internal control system affects governmental effectiveness. In addition we examine the mediating effect of organizational role stress between the internal control system and organizational effectiveness. The questionnaire survey method and linear structural equation model are used to analyze the research samples. The empirical results show that the implementation of an internal control system increases, but role stress decreases organizational effectiveness. However, the implementation of an internal control system can decrease role stress. Results also reveal the partial mediation of role stress, and suggest that the execution of an internal control system can effectively decrease employees’ role stress and enhance organizational effectiveness.

Keywords: Internal Control System, Role Stress, Organizational Effectiveness

回目錄

預算參與和工作績效之關聯性：角色模糊、自我效能及預算目標接受的中介效果

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BUDGETARY PARTICIPATION AND JOB PERFORMANCE: THE MEDIATING EFFECTS OF ROLE AMBIGUITY, SELF EFFICACY AND BUDGETARY GOAL ACCEPTANCE

鍾紹熙

美和科技大學企業管理系助理教授

Shao-Hsi Chung

Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration,

Meiho University

摘要

　　基於員工參與的認知與激勵理論，本研究目的為探討預算參與和工作績效之關係，認為兩者的關係會受到角色模糊、自我效能和預算目標接受之中介效果的影響，並提出一整合模式。研究採問卷調查法進行，調查對象為台灣電子製造產業上市（櫃）公司的132位生產經理人及其直屬上司。本研究建構結構方程模式並以LISREL為分析工具。研究結果發現，預算參與經由降低角色模糊、提高自我效能和預算目標接受來間接提升經理人的工作績效，亦即角色模糊、自我效能和預算目標接受在預算參與和工作績效間扮演著非常重要的中介角色。對於研究結果，本研究提出理論上的貢獻及實務上的管理意涵。

關鍵字：預算參與、角色模糊、自我效能、預算目標接受、工作績效

ABSTRACT

　　Based on cognitive and motivational theories of employee participation, the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between budgetary participation and job performance. This study suggested that the relationship is mediated by role ambiguity, self efficacy and budgetary goal acceptance, providing an integrated model. Data were collected from a mail questionnaire survey of 132 production managers and their supervisors in publicly listed electronics manufacturers in Taiwan, and then analyzed by LISREL under the constructed structural equation model. Results indicated that budgetary participation indirectly increased job performance by decreasing role ambiguity or increasing self efficacy and budgetary goal acceptance. That is, role ambiguity, self efficacy and budgetary goal acceptance played very important mediating roles in the relationship between budgetary participation and job performance. By the results of this study, contribution in theory and managerial implication in practice were provided.

Keywords: Budgetary Participation, Role Ambiguity, Self Efficacy, Budgetary Goal Acceptance, Job Performance

回目錄

台灣經濟發展過程之縣市成長與收斂實證

TAIWAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, GROWTH OF 25 COUNTIES AND CONVERGENCE

高慈敏

私立銘傳大學財務金融系助理教授

Tzu-Min Kao

Assistant Professor, Department of Finance,

Ming Chuan University

摘要

　　本文延續Baumol（1986）；DeLong（1988）；Barro and Sala-i-Martin（1992）的研究，討論台灣區域發展過程區域發展收斂現象，實證雖支持β收斂假說，但整體解釋力偏低。本文再以關聯結構（copula）方法，就機率的角度，進行收斂假說的探討。首先，估計核函數。根據區域所得的核修勻函數，發現台灣的邊沁式社會福利函數，符合一階隨機優勢理論。其次，利用機率探討區域收斂現象，建構期初所得與成長率的機率關係。由歷史資料的聯合機率結構顯示，區域發展存在否極泰來的可能性。相對低所得水準的區域，有相當大的機率（50%），可以高度成長，但亦存在33%的機率，維持相對貧窮的現狀；反之，相對高所得水準的區域，維持高度成長之機率極低。

關鍵字：生產力、區域成長、核函數、隨機優勢理論、關聯結構

ABSTRACT

　　This article follows the researches of Baumol (1986), DeLong (1988), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), and discusses the regional convergent facts of Taiwan. The empirical results support the hypothesis of β convergence but the explanatory power is low. Copula methods are applied to explore this finding. This article tries to incorporate the probability function, which is different from the mean and variance estimation method. Firstly, kernel density estimation of regional income has been used to describe the income distribution. The Bentham type social welfare function of Taiwan conforms to the first-order stochastically dominance theory based on the region smoothing kernel function. Secondly, probability analysis has been applied to explore the convergent facts. With the probability analysis, the relationship between growth and initial income is constructed. From the regional development perspective, the joint probability of historical data confirms the possibility of “out of the depth of misfortune comes bliss” meaning that there are chances for the poor to get out of the poverty. Poor counties have 50% probability to become better, but there are also 33% probabilities that they will stay at relative poverty. However, the growth rate of rich counties has low probability to surpass the current economical advantages.

Keywords: Productivity, Regional Growth, Kernel Function, Stochastic Dominance, Copula

回目錄