目　　錄

回商管科技季刊目錄

壽險業務員績效之正向錯覺及個人自我效能關係之研究

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSITIVE ILLUSION AND SELF-EFFICACY FOR LIFE INSURANCE SALESMAN SALES PERFORMANCE

鄭碧月

台南應用科技大學財務金融系副教授

邱唐資

台南應用科技大學財務金融系學生

Pi-Yueh Cheng

Associate Professor, Department of Finance,

Tainan University of Technology

Tarng-Tz Chiou

Undergraduate Student, Department of Finance,

Tainan University of Technology

摘要

　　面對台灣保險業務的競爭日益激烈，保險業務員是壽險行銷能否成功的關鍵因素，市場上客戶對保險公司的認識是透過保險業務員而來的；保險公司要將商品賣給客戶，也必須透過保險業務員的介紹。注意保險業務員的心理因素，將會有較佳的業務績效。自我效能論認為個體對於工作表現的信心水準愈高，則未來成就愈好。然而，過去已有許多研究指出，對於未來成就或表現的過度高估，可能是一種自我顯揚偏誤的正向錯覺。本研究以保險公司151位保險業務員（男性佔41%，女性佔59%；平均年齡33歲，標準差1.1）為調查樣本，採取縱貫性研究，蒐集業務員的自我效能，預估的業務績效、以及他們分別在計畫初始、三個月後與六個月後等三個時段的業務績效。主要目的為探討保險業務員自我效能與正向錯覺的關係，以及檢驗保險業務員自我效能、正向錯覺與其業務績效的關係是否穩定。研究結果有以下發現，第一，低自我效能者較容易產生正向錯覺；第二，自我效能與業務績效的關係在半年內相當穩定；第三，正向錯覺者在業務績效低於無正向錯覺者，且這種現象在低自我效能者顯著高於高自我效能者。研究結果可提供保險公司，未來提升保險業務員的業務績效時重要的啟示。

關鍵字：正向錯覺、自我效能、業務績效、保險業務員

ABSTRACT

　　The Life insurance salesman is the key factor in the success of marketing when the insurance industry is faced with increasingly fierce competition in Taiwan. The awareness about customers in insurance companies comes from their salesmen. Because Insurance companies want to sell insurance to customers, these products must be introduced through the salesman. If companies pay more attention to the psychological factors affecting insurance salesmen, then they will have better sale performances. Past research indicates that the self-efficacy theory suggests that if individuals' confidence in their performance is at a higher level, their performance in the future will be better. Past studies also indicate that inflated self-estimate for the future performance the so-called positive illusions, serves as one kind of self-enhancement bias. 151 insurance salesmen coming from some insurance companies in Tainan (41% male, 59% female; M age = 33 yr., SD =1.1) participated in a longitudinal study during a half year period. This research aims to examine the relationship between self-efficacy and positive illusions as well as the impact of positive illusions on subsequent sales performance. Results show that, first, self-efficacy is negatively correlated with positive illusions and the positive illusions of salesmen with lower self-efficacy are significantly higher than those with higher self-efficacy; secondly, the relationship between self- efficiency and sales performance is quite stable in six months; thirdly, the expected performance on future sales performance of individuals with positive illusions is higher than those without positive illusions. This research is expected to help insurance advisors to enhance salesmen's performance in insurance companies.

Keywords: Positive Illusions, Self-Efficacy, Sales Performance, Insurance Salesmen

回目錄

金融與保險服務業貿易存續之穩定性：OECD國家之驗證

SURVIVAL AND DURATION OF STABILITY ON TRADE IN FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE SERVICES：EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

紀沛妤

國立臺中科技大學財務金融學所碩士

林詠萱

財團法人食品工業發展研究所經濟與統計團隊研究員

魏中瑄

國立臺中科技大學財務金融學系副教授

Pei-Yu Chi

Master, Department of Finance,

National Taichung University of Science and Technology

Yung-Hsuan Lin

Researcher, Economics and Statistics Group,

Food Industry Research and Development Institute(Taiwan)

Chung-Hsuan Wei

Associate Professor, Department of Finance,

National Taichung University of Science and Technology

摘要

　　本研究主要目的為衡量全球金融危機前後的OECD國家金融與保險服務業貿易出口之穩定性，並分別了解各國別與洲別甚至是組織別面對金融危機所受到的衝擊。本研究針對已開發國家組織中的OECD成員國作為地主國，利用與對手國為全世界間之金融與保險服務業貿易出口金額流量，並考慮2008年全球金融危機的衝擊再利用存活分析方法判斷該事件對各國於觀察期間之金融與保險服務業貿易存續率的影響。首先，本研究發現希臘與大部分的歐洲國家有著不同的結果，該國無論金融或保險服務業貿易之存續穩定度皆為金融危機前比金融危機後穩定，驗證了希臘在金融與保險服務業貿易上的衝擊。其次，就所有地主國家之整體表現而言，金融與保險服務業貿易在存續期間的表現也極為相似，當兩產業服務業貿易之存續處在0.5以上時，金融服務業貿易於全球金融危機前後之存續期間分別為2.75年與3.8年，保險服務業貿易在GFC前後的存續期間表現則為2.71年與3.76年。因此，無論在全球金融危機前後金融服務業出口貿易相較於保險服務業出口貿易來的穩定。第三，大部分的歐洲國家在金融危機前的觀察期間中，無論金融或保險服務業貿易之存續率皆有急遽下滑的現象，而造成存續率如此不穩定的潛在原因有可能為近幾年之氣候異常所致。本研究首創以存活分析比較服務業貿易於國別、洲別及組織別之差異。再者，Log-Rank Test穩健性測試也被使用於OECD成員國之產業間與區域間之差異。

關鍵字：存活分析、服務業貿易、全球金融危機

ABSTRACT

　　This study investigated the trade volume of the financial and insurance sectors between OECD members (from developed countries) as host countries and their partner countries worldwide. This study also considered the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) by employing survival analysis to determine the influence of this event on the survival rates of financial and insurance services in various countries within the observation period. The results indicated that Greece was different from most European nations: the duration of trade of its financial and insurance sectors was more stable before the GFC than after the GFC. This verified the impact of the event on the stability of trade in the financial and insurance services. Second, during the observation period before the GFC, the duration of trade in both the financial and insurance services of most European nations fell dramatically. The potential cause of this instability may have been the abnormal financial climate in recent years. Third, in terms of the performance of all host countries, the average duration of trade of the two industries was more stable after the GFC than before the GFC. However, the average duration of trade was more stable in financial services than in insurance services.Finally, this study also found that the survival rate is more stable in the partner countries of OECD members than those of non-OECD members.

Keywords: Survival Analysis, Trade in Services, Global Financial Crisis

回目錄

以演化觀點探討中小型家族企業轉型之研究

EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVES ON ORGANIZATION TRANSFORMATION OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED FAMILY BUSINESS

曾敏雅

環球科技大學行銷管理系助理教授

吳建明

環球科技大學行銷管理系副教授

連雅慧

國立中正大學企業管理學系教授

Min-Ya Tseng

Assist Professor, Department of Marketing Management,

TransWorld University

Chien-Ming Wu

Associate Professor, Department of Marketing Management,

TransWorld University

Ya-Hui Lien

Professor, Business Administration,

National Chung-Chen University

摘要

　　台灣中小企業發展溯自戰後由黑手夥計轉為頭家的創業歷程。惟現有企業經營環境受到全球化與資訊科技影響，為數眾多的中小型家族企業能否順利進行「組織轉型」，成為企業能否存續的重要關鍵。

　　本文以探討中小家族企業在日漸困厄的經營環境中，如何透過探索創新與利用創新成功逆轉為具有商機的新興產業。

　　對於組織轉型的探究，考量其為長期歷程活動，居間涵蓋複雜情境因素與多元對象，因此本研究採取演化觀點，將個案公司的轉型歷程劃分為「產品創新期、通路拓展期、服務創新期」三個時期，每時期皆以「創新、衝突與分歧的轉化」等三階段作為其演化過程。並以變異、選擇與維持的演化過程，分析歷程資料，最後從個案分析中發展相關研究命題。

關鍵詞：演化、組織轉型、探索創新、利用創新

ABSTRACT

　　Taiwan's traditional industries have to face severe challenges not only within the organization but also from the circumstance like global competition and domestic market demand decline. Among these industries, small and medium-sized family businesses would firstly face these challenges. The crucial point to the business sustainability depends on how successfully the company could run the organization transformation.

　　Considering the organization transformation research as a long term process with complicated circumstance factors, evolutionary perspectives are adopted as the research method. Accordingly, the transformation process of the case companies is divided into three phrases respectively: product innovation, channel development and service innovation. During each period, there is a cycling process of transformation as innovation, conflict and split. It has following variation, option, retention, to proceed the evolution. In closure it develops relative propositions of organization transformation.

Keywords: Evolution, Organization Transform, Exploratory Innovation, Exploitative Innovation

回目錄

農產品全球經營發展之關鍵成功因素研究

THE RESEARCH OF KEY SUCCESSFUL FACTORS OF THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT BUSINESS

呂政璋

金色大地股份有限公司執行長

耿筠

國立台灣科技大學專利研究所教授

Stephen Lu

Chief Executive Officer,

Golden Field Co. Ltd.

Yun Ken

Professor, Graduate Institute of Patent,

National Taiwan University of Science and Technology

摘要

　　農企業經營若不能隨全球產業價值鏈的變化而調整策略，將會淪入缺乏競爭力的地步。本研究以農產品在全球市場發展與經營的關鍵成功因素為焦點，蒐集國內外相關文獻所提出的經營管理因素，進而彙整出商品發展、組織管理、與市場行銷等三項構面與12項因素，據此建立關鍵成功因素的層級結構模式。運用層級分析法為分析工具，並嚴格篩選受訪的專家，取得符合分析目的之資料。分析結果發現市場行銷構面被認為是最重要的構面，其次為商品發展構面及組織管理構面；在12項關鍵成功因素中，依據重要性排名前六者分別為通路管理、鮮度控制、品質穩定、物流管理、服務型態以及價格策略。

關鍵字：農業推廣、行銷管理、關鍵成功因素、全球化、層級分析法

ABSTRACT

　　Agribusiness must adjust their strategy with the change of globally industrial value chain, they will lose their competitiveness. The focus issue of this study is the critical success factors in the global agricultural market development and business. The relevant literatures proposed by the viewpoint of managerial factors were reviewed, which further were catalyzed into 3 dimensions and 12 factors. The hierarchical structure of key success factors were established by these dimensions and factors. By using Analytic Hierarchy Process as analysis tool, this research strictly invited reviewers and respondents to collect necessary data. This research find the most important dimension is marketing, followed by product development and organization management. In factors evaluation, the first 6 factors are market channel, freshness control, stable quality, logistics management, service patterns and pricing strategies.

Keywords: Agricultural Promotion, Marketing Management, Key Success Factors, Globalization, AHP

回目錄